A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science

AA Scaife, D Smith - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2018 - nature.com
We review the growing evidence for a widespread inconsistency between the low strength of
predictable signals in climate models and the relatively high level of agreement they exhibit …

Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather

J Kidston, AA Scaife, SC Hardiman, DM Mitchell… - Nature …, 2015 - nature.com
A powerful influence on the weather that we experience on the ground can be exerted by the
stratosphere. This highly stratified layer of Earth's atmosphere is found 10 to 50 kilometres …

Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information

JY Lee, J Marotzke, G Bala, L Cao, S Corti… - Climate change 2021 …, 2021 - cambridge.org
This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons
from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to …

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

DM Smith, AA Scaife, R Eade, P Athanasiadis… - Nature, 2020 - nature.com
Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection,
attribution, prediction and projection of climate change,–. Although inter-model agreement is …

[HTML][HTML] The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate …

JE Kay, C Deser, A Phillips, A Mai… - Bulletin of the …, 2015 - journals.ametsoc.org
While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often
underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers …

Near-term climate change: projections and predictability

B Kirtman, SB Power, AJ Adedoyin, GJ Boer, R Bojariu… - 2013 - pure.iiasa.ac.at
This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate
(present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated," near-term" change and the …

The decadal climate prediction project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

GJ Boer, DM Smith, C Cassou… - Geoscientific Model …, 2016 - gmd.copernicus.org
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation
into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past …

[HTML][HTML] Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

GA Meehl, L Goddard, G Boer… - Bulletin of the …, 2014 - journals.ametsoc.org
Barsugli, J., C. Anderson, JB Smith, and JM Vogel, 2009: Options for improving climate
modeling to assist water utility planning for climate change. Western Utilities Climate …

[HTML][HTML] On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity

GA Vecchi, T Delworth, R Gudgel, S Kapnick… - Journal of …, 2014 - journals.ametsoc.org
On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity in: Journal of Climate
Volume 27 Issue 21 (2014) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation Logo Logo Logo Logo …

Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

SP **e, C Deser, GA Vecchi, M Collins… - Nature Climate …, 2015 - nature.com
Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To
achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying …