We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure
economic slack in 10 industrialized economies. Our measure takes changes in the long-run …

This study explores the out-of-sample forecasting ability of exchange rate models using real-
time macroeconomic data with bilateral exchange rates and short-term interest rates from …

Using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, we
study the effects of Canadian and US central bank communication and macroeconomic …

This paper provides new empirical evidence on a monetary policy committee with
heterogeneous members whose decisions affect the efficacy of monetary policy. It thereby …

Although there have been many evaluations of the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts,
we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the …

We study changes in the plucking behavior of employment growth, as well as changes in its
relationship with the output cycle in the G7 countries. Using both revised and real-time data …

This paper raises concerns about the methodological approaches commonly adopted in
typical Taylor rule studies. We find that many empirical studies on the Taylor rule do not …

This paper analyses the applicability of a nonlinear Taylor rule in characterizing the
monetary policy behavior of the South African Reserve Bank, using a logistic smooth …

We explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank
of Canada and Federal Reserve communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an …

This paper extends a standard New Keynesian model by introducing anticipated shocks to
inflation, output, and interest rates, and by incorporating forward-looking, forecast-targeting …