We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate disperse
information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future events. Drawing together data from a …

This paper presents an attempt to study and monitor the evolution of research on prediction
markets (PM). It provides an extended literature review and classification scheme. The …

Economists, psychologists, and marketers are interested in determining the monetary value
people place on non-market goods for a variety of reasons: to carry out cost-benefit analysis …

Abstract Information markets are markets created to aggregate information. Such markets
usually estimate a probability distribution over the values of certain variables, via bets on …

In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while betting
markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine these …

Purpose–Social media provide an impressive amount of data about users and their
interactions, thereby offering computer and social scientists, economists, and statisticians …

The accuracy of prediction markets has been documented both for markets based on real
money and those based on play money. To test how much extra accuracy can be obtained …

In this paper we review methods that aim to aid the anticipation of rare, high-impact, events.
We evaluate these methods according to their ability to yield well-calibrated probabilities or …

There has recently been some effort to mine social media for public sentiment analysis.
Studies have suggested that public emotions shown through Tweeter may well be correlated …

The popularity of many social media sites has prompted both academic and practical
research on the possibility of mining social media data for the analysis of public sentiment …