What are the effects of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics? We answer this
question by estimating non-linear (Smooth-Transition) VARs with post-WWII US data. The …

This paper studies how and why households adjust their spending, saving, and borrowing in
response to transitory income shocks. We leverage new large-scale survey data to first …

We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of US economic policy uncertainty
shocks on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in …

We estimate non‐linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are
countercyclical in the US. We deal with the issue of non‐fundamentalness due to fiscal …

A large and conventional class of macroeconomic models predicts that short-lived
government investment shocks have a smaller fiscal multiplier than government …

Are there times when durable spending is less responsive to economic stimulus? We argue
that aggregate durable expenditures respond more sluggishly to economic shocks during …

We estimate a nonlinear VAR model to study the real effects of monetary policy shocks in
regimes characterized by high vs. low macroeconomic uncertainty. We find unexpected …

We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of
uncertainty shocks in US recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the …

Using microlevel data, we document systematic forecast errors in household income
expectations that are related to the level of income. We show that these errors can be …

How far could a rise in uncertainty affecting China be transmitted to other economies? This
paper investigates the possible spillovers from a shock to Chinese Economic Policy …