Much time has been spent over the past decade debating whether social media contribute to
democracy. Drawing on an original study of internet users across nine Western …

How powerful are political parties in sha** citizens' opinions? Despite long‐standing
interest in the flow of influence between partisan elites and citizens, few studies to date …

In this article we analyze the effects of election salience on affective polarization. Campaigns
and elections epitomize the moment of maximum political conflict, information spread …

Influential theories depict politicians as, alternatively, strongly constrained by public opinion,
able to shape public opinion with persuasive appeals, or relatively unconstrained by public …

The economy is so powerful in determining the results of US presidential elections that
political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the …

I present a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model that enables early and accurate prediction
of US presidential election outcomes at the state level. The method systematically combines …

Election campaigns are more than simple competitions for votes; they also represent an
opportunity for voters to become politically knowledgeable and engaged. Using a large …

How do voter preferences come into focus over the electoral cycle in different countries? Do
they evolve in patterned ways? Does the evolution vary across countries? This article …

Migration represents one of the key issues in both Italian and European politics, and it has
triggered EU-wide debates and negotiations, alongside alarmist and often sensationalist …

In this monograph, we argue for the establishment of a developmental science of politics that
describes, explains, and predicts the formation and change of individuals' political …