Who is responsible for protest mobilization? Models of disease and information diffusion
suggest that those central to a social network (the core) should have a greater ability to …

Research often fails to account for the specific pathways by which climatic factors can cause
social unrest. One challenge lies in understanding the distinct effects of food insecurity and …

How do state and protester violence affect whether protests grow or shrink? Previous
research finds conflicting results for how violence affects protest dynamics. This article …

Foreign investment in Africa's mineral resources has increased dramatically. This paper
addresses three questions raised by this trend: do commercial mining investments increase …

Does police militarization influence government use of repression? While comparative work
examines police militarization, violence, human rights abuses, and torture, it does not …

Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define
forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized …

Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) representation learning embeds relations and entities
into a continuous low-dimensional vector space by incorporating temporal information …

We examine if dynamic information from event data can help improve on a model attempting
to forecast civil war using measures reflecting plausible motivation and grievances. Buhaug …

Ostensibly bilateral US foreign policy actions, such as sanctions, can influence third-party
compliance with US policy preferences. US sanctions simultaneously signal US preferences …

How can the government agencies responsible for enforcing economic sanctions enhance
their effectiveness? This study explains how and why sanctions enforcement actions …