Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

W Marzocchi, MS Bebbington - Bulletin of volcanology, 2012 - Springer
Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future
evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be …

A volcanic event forecasting model for multiple tephra records, demonstrated on Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

M Damaschke, SJ Cronin, MS Bebbington - Bulletin of Volcanology, 2018 - Springer
Robust time-varying volcanic hazard assessments are difficult to develop, because they
depend upon having a complete and extensive eruptive activity record. Missing events in …

A simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity and enhances multivolcano hazard quantification

J Selva, L Sandri, M Taroni, R Sulpizio, P Tierz… - Science …, 2022 - science.org
Volcanic activity typically switches between high-activity states with many eruptions and low-
activity states with few or no eruptions. We present a simple two-regime physics-informed …

Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic field

MS Bebbington - Bulletin of Volcanology, 2015 - Springer
The idea of a volcanic field 'boundary'is prevalent in the literature, but ill-defined at best. We
use the elliptically constrained vents in the Auckland Volcanic Field to examine how spatial …

Assessing spatio-temporal eruption forecasts in a monogenetic volcanic field

MS Bebbington - Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2013 - Elsevier
Many spatio-temporal models have been proposed for forecasting the location and timing of
the next eruption in a monogenetic volcanic field. These have almost invariably been fitted …

Long-term forecasting of volcanic explosivity

MS Bebbington - Geophysical Journal International, 2014 - academic.oup.com
It has been 30 years since the terms time-predictable (repose length increases with previous
eruption size) and size-predictable (eruption size increases with repose length) entered the …

Long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using open and non-open data: observations and current issues

P Tierz - Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020 - frontiersin.org
Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) has become the paradigm to quantify
volcanic hazard over the last decades. Substantial aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in …

Influence of time-dependent seismic hazard on structural design

A Dall'Asta, H Dabiri, E Tondi, M Morici - Bulletin of Earthquake …, 2021 - Springer
Recent works on seismic hazard have introduced the concept of time-dependent seismic
hazard and different models have been proposed to predict the inter-arrival time between …

The economic impact of services provided by an electronic trade platform: The case of MarketMaker

SD Zapata, CE Carpio, O Isengildina-Massa… - Journal of Agricultural …, 2013 - JSTOR
Despite the touted potential of e-commerce to improve agriculture profits, the literature on
effectiveness of e-commerce is very limited. This paper assesses the economic impact of an …

[HTML][HTML] A new perspective on eruption data completeness: insights from the First Recorded EruptionS in the Holocene (FRESH) database

V Burgos, SF Jenkins, M Bebbington, C Newhall… - Journal of Volcanology …, 2022 - Elsevier
Identifying the most complete (best recorded) portion of an eruption record is essential
before estimating eruption recurrence and probability. This is typically achieved by plotting …