This paper presents an attempt to study and monitor the evolution of research on prediction
markets (PM). It provides an extended literature review and classification scheme. The …

We explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability
forecasts and their combination in decision making. Despite these advances, challenges still …

We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two
crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 …

Laboratory research has shown that both underreaction and overreaction to new information
pose threats to forecasting accuracy. This article explores how real-world forecasters who …

The increasing popularity of open innovation approaches has led to the rise of various open
innovation communities on the Internet which might contain several thousand user …

Computational Aspects of Prediction Markets Page 1 Prediction Markets Partition model of
knowledge Distributed information markets Convergence time bounds Computational …

We present a study on the evolution of publications about applications of proper scoring
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …

AI Magazine Page 1 Articles 42 AI MAGAZINE Mechanism design has been described as “inverse
game theory.” Whereas game theorists ask what outcome results from a game, mechanism …

Citing recent successes in forecasting elections, movies, products, and other outcomes,
prediction market advocates call for widespread use of market-based methods for …

In this paper, we introduce a novel approach, an electronic combination of a prediction
market and Delphi methodology, to create a foresight support system (FSS). While the …