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Mitigating disaster risks in the age of climate change
Emissions abatement alone cannot address the consequences of global warming for
weather disasters. We model how society adapts to manage disaster risks to capital stock …
weather disasters. We model how society adapts to manage disaster risks to capital stock …
Premium for heightened uncertainty: Explaining pre-announcement market returns
We find large overnight returns with no abnormal variance before nonfarm payrolls, ISM, and
GDP announcements, similar to the pre-FOMC returns. To explain this common pattern, we …
GDP announcements, similar to the pre-FOMC returns. To explain this common pattern, we …
Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion
We show that endogenous variation in risk aversion over the business cycle can jointly
explain financial market responses to high-frequency monetary policy shocks with standard …
explain financial market responses to high-frequency monetary policy shocks with standard …
Macroeconomic attention and announcement risk premia
We construct macroeconomic attention indexes (MAI), which are new measures of attention
to different macroeconomic risks, including unemployment and monetary policy. Individual …
to different macroeconomic risks, including unemployment and monetary policy. Individual …
Back to the 1980s or not? The drivers of inflation and real risks in Treasury bonds
C Pflueger - 2023 - nber.org
ABSTRACT I use nominal and real bond risks as new moments to discipline a New
Keynesian asset pricing model, where supply shocks, demand shocks, and monetary policy …
Keynesian asset pricing model, where supply shocks, demand shocks, and monetary policy …
The cross section of the monetary policy announcement premium
Using the expected option-implied variance reduction to measure the sensitivity of stock
returns to monetary policy announcement surprises, this paper shows monetary policy …
returns to monetary policy announcement surprises, this paper shows monetary policy …
Information acquisition and the pre-announcement drift
We present a dynamic Grossman-Stiglitz model with endogenous information acquisition to
explain the pre-FOMC announcement drift. Because FOMC announcements reveal …
explain the pre-FOMC announcement drift. Because FOMC announcements reveal …
Pre-announcement risk
T Laarits - NYU Stern School of Business, 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
I propose and test a new explanation for the pre-FOMC announcement drift puzzle. I show
that such a drift arises in a model where investors interpret a given FOMC action based on …
that such a drift arises in a model where investors interpret a given FOMC action based on …
0DTE asset pricing
We document asset pricing implications of the new zero days-to-expiration (0DTE) options,
which today account for half of the total S&P 500 option volume. We show that:(i) most of the …
which today account for half of the total S&P 500 option volume. We show that:(i) most of the …
The lost capital asset pricing model
We provide a novel explanation for the empirical failure of the capital asset pricing model
(CAPM) despite its widespread practical use. In a rational-expectations economy in which …
(CAPM) despite its widespread practical use. In a rational-expectations economy in which …