Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the
complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation …

Overconfidence has been studied in 3 distinct ways. Overestimation is thinking that you are
better than you are. Overplacement is the exaggerated belief that you are better than others …

Past research offers mixed perspectives on whether domain experience helps or hurts
algorithm-augmented worker performance. Reconciling these perspectives, we theorize that …

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they
believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it …

Social psychologists have long recognized the power of statisticized groups. When
individual judgments about some fact (eg, the unemployment rate for next quarter) are …

Across 6 studies we investigated the development of overconfidence among beginners. In 4
of the studies, participants completed multicue probabilistic learning tasks (eg, learning to …

Public policies often fail to achieve their intended result because of the complexity of both
the environment and the policy‐making process. In this article, we review the benefits of …

Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider
enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in …

Elicitation of expert opinion is important for risk analysis when only limited data are
available. Expert opinion is often elicited in the form of subjective confidence intervals; …

Using original purpose-built 2018 Japanese survey data, we estimate the financial
behaviors and attitudes of households. We find that financial literacy plays an important and …