Modeling the effect of lockdown timing as a COVID-19 control measure in countries with differing social contacts

T Oraby, MG Tyshenko, JC Maldonado, K Vatcheva… - Scientific reports, 2021 - nature.com
The application, timing, and duration of lockdown strategies during a pandemic remain
poorly quantified with regards to expected public health outcomes. Previous projection …

[HTML][HTML] A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis

LJS Allen - Infectious Disease Modelling, 2017 - Elsevier
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic
epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time …

Novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2020: intense surveillance is vital for preventing sustained transmission in new locations

RN Thompson - Journal of clinical medicine, 2020 - mdpi.com
The outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 24,500 confirmed
cases, including 492 deaths, as of 5 February 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread …

Extinction and stationary distribution of a stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model with time-delay

R Ikram, A Khan, M Zahri, A Saeed, M Yavuz… - Computers in Biology …, 2022 - Elsevier
We reformulate a stochastic epidemic model consisting of four human classes. We show that
there exists a unique positive solution to the proposed model. The stochastic basic …

[HTML][HTML] The effects of border control and quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19

MP Hossain, A Junus, X Zhu, P Jia, TH Wen, D Pfeiffer… - Epidemics, 2020 - Elsevier
The rapid expansion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been observed in many
parts of the world. Many newly reported cases of COVID-19 during early outbreak phases …

[PDF][PDF] Stochastic mathematical models in epidemiology

MZ Ndii, AK Supriatna - Information, 2017 - researchgate.net
A stochastic epidemic model can be used to understand disease transmission dynamics.
One of the challenges in stochastic epidemic modelling is to determine disease persistence …

Relations between deterministic and stochastic thresholds for disease extinction in continuous-and discrete-time infectious disease models

LJS Allen, P van den Driessche - Mathematical biosciences, 2013 - Elsevier
Thresholds for disease extinction provide essential information for control, eradication or
management of diseases. Through relations between branching process theory and the …

Dose-response relationships for environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models

AF Brouwer, MH Weir, MC Eisenberg… - PLoS computational …, 2017 - journals.plos.org
Environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models provide a mechanistic
approach to examining environmental interventions for outbreaks, such as water treatment …

Why the Spectral Radius? An intuition-building introduction to the basic reproduction number

AF Brouwer - Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2022 - Springer
The basic reproduction number R 0 is a fundamental concept in mathematical epidemiology
and infectious disease modeling. Loosely speaking, it describes the number of people that …

Stochastic population and epidemic models

LJS Allen - Mathematical biosciences lecture series, stochastics in …, 2015 - Springer
The intent of this monograph is to introduce graduate students to branching process
applications of populations and epidemics. Deterministic models of populations and …