Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19
pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve …

Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different
non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has …

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …

Global and national surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology is mostly based on targeted
schemes focused on testing individuals with symptoms. These tested groups are often …

Abstract SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has caused devastating health and
economic impacts around the globe since its appearance in late 2019. The advent of …

Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19
pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the …

The time-varying reproduction number (Rt: the average number of secondary infections
caused by each infected person) may be used to assess changes in transmission potential …

Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic is required to facilitate the planning of
COVID-19 health care demand in hospitals. Here, we evaluate the performance of 12 …

Background Forecasting healthcare demand is essential in epidemic settings, both to inform
situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust …