Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or
quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is …

The past 25 years has seen phenomenal growth of interest in judgemental approaches to
forecasting and a significant change of attitude on the part of researchers to the role of …

Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their
predictions, and aggregate those predictions to assign the most accurate probabilities to …

This paper provides an extensive review of studies related to expert estimation of software
development effort. The main goal and contribution of the review is to support the research …

This paper reviews the literature on the contributions of judgemental methods to the
forecasting process. Using a contingent approach, it first reviews the empirical studies …

Metacognition refers to thinking about our own thinking. It has assumed a prominent role in
social judgment because our thoughts about our thoughts can magnify, attenuate, or even …

Overprecision in judgment is both the most durable and the least understood form of
overconfidence. This chapter reviews the evidence on overprecision, highlighting its …

The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be
poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training …

Time series found in areas such as marketing and sales often have regular established
patterns which are occasionally affected by exogenous influences, such as sales …

Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such
forecasts form part of an information system on which other functions, such as scheduling …