Many economic time series exhibit dramatic breaks associated with events such as
economic recessions, financial panics, and currency crises. Such changes in regime may …

We propose a theory of self-fulfilling unemployment fluctuations. When a firm increases its
workforce, it raises demand and weakens competition facing other firms, as employed …

We develop a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for equilibria to be determinate in a
class of forward-looking Markov-switching rational expectations models and we develop an …

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a Markov-switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model
that allows shifts in the monetary policy reaction coefficients and shock volatilities with US …

We present the first necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique perfect-
foresight solution, returning to a given steady-state, in an otherwise linear model with …

Occasionally binding constraints (OBCs) like the zero lower bound (ZLB) can lead to
multiple equilibria, and so to belief-driven recessions. To aid in finding policies that avoid …

This paper develops a DSGE model which is shown to explain variation in the nominal and
real term structure as well as inflation surveys and four macrovariables for the UK economy …

A New-Keynesian macro-model is estimated accommodating regime-switching behavior in
monetary policy and macro-shocks. A key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey …

内容摘要: 传统“泰勒规则” 的线性设定具有一定的局限性, 由于宏观经济背景和政策作用时间
不同, 货币政策规则可能是一种非线性系统. 本文将“泰勒规则” 扩展为一种具有时变通胀目标的 …

When monetary policy faces a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest
rate, a minimum state variable (MSV) solution may not exist even if the Taylor principle holds …