Bayesian Reasoning is both a fundamental idea of probability and a key model in applied
sciences for evaluating situations of uncertainty. Bayesian Reasoning may be defined as the …

In teaching statistics in secondary schools and at university, two visualizations are primarily
used when situations with two dichotomous characteristics are represented: 2× 2 tables and …

For more than 20 years, research has proven the beneficial effect of natural frequencies
when it comes to solving Bayesian reasoning tasks (Gigerenzer and Hoffrage,). In a recent …

In the present paper we empirically investigate the psychometric properties of some of the
most famous statistical and logical cognitive illusions from the “heuristics and biases” …

Abstract Machine learning models are increasingly used in the medical domain to study the
association between risk factors and diseases to support practitioners in understanding …

When physicians are asked to determine the positive predictive value from the a priori
probability of a disease and the sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian …

Changing the information format from probabilities into frequencies as well as employing
appropriate visualizations such as tree diagrams or 2× 2 tables are important tools that can …

Questions involving Bayesian Reasoning often arise in events of everyday life, such as
assessing the results of a breathalyser test or a medical diagnostic test. Bayesian …

Background Communicating well with patients is a competence central to everyday clinical
practice, and communicating statistical information, especially in Bayesian reasoning tasks …

Can children solve Bayesian problems, given that these pose great difficulties even for most
adults? We present an ecological framework in which Bayesian intuitions emerge from a …