Ensemble forecasts are the method of choice in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to
generate probabilistic forecasts. The number of members in an ensemble is an important …

Twenty‐five years ago the first operational, ensemble forecasts were issued by the
European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for …

Abstract The Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisations scheme (SPP) represents model
uncertainty in numerical weather prediction by introducing stochastic perturbations into the …

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are dynamically important, strongly ascending and mostly
stratiform cloud-forming airstreams in extratropical cyclones. Despite the predominantly …

Improving ensemble forecasts is a complex process which involves proper scores such as
the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). A homogeneous Gaussian (hoG) model is …

In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial
condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple …

Reconstructions of excitation patterns in cardiac tissue must contend with uncertainties due
to model error, observation error, and hidden state variables. The accuracy of these state …

Multivariate probabilistic verification is concerned with the evaluation of joint probability
distributions of vector quantities such as a weather variable at multiple locations or a wind …

The prediction of the weather at subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) timescales is dependent
on both initial and boundary conditions. An open question is how to best initialize a relatively …

Abstract Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) estimates the probability distribution of
atmospheric states through multiple integrations of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) …