Analytically pricing variance and volatility swaps with stochastic volatility, stochastic equilibrium level and regime switching

S Lin, XJ He - Expert Systems with Applications, 2023 - Elsevier
This paper proposes a new model with a two-factor stochastic equilibrium volatility level that
can be used to price variance and volatility swaps with nonlinear payoff. The adopted model …

Uncertain energy model for electricity and gas futures with application in spark-spread option price

F Mehrdoust, I Noorani, W Xu - Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 2023 - Springer
In this paper, we propose an uncertain energy model with a time-varying volatility factor to
describe the electricity and gas futures price dynamics. The corresponding spark-spread …

Forecasting Nordic electricity spot price using deep learning networks

F Mehrdoust, I Noorani, SB Belhaouari - Neural Computing and …, 2023 - Springer
As a common data-driven method, artificial neural networks have been widely used in
electricity spot price forecasting. To improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts, this paper …

Two-factor Heston model equipped with regime-switching: American option pricing and model calibration by Levenberg–Marquardt optimization algorithm

F Mehrdoust, I Noorani, A Hamdi - Mathematics and Computers in …, 2023 - Elsevier
In this paper, we consider the pricing of American options under a regime-switching double
Heston model, such that the interest rate and mean-reversion level parameters in both …

Electricity spot price modeling by multi-factor uncertain process: a case study from the Nordic region

I Noorani, F Mehrdoust, W Lio - Soft Computing, 2021 - Springer
In recent years, the liberalization of energy markets (especially electricity) by many countries
has led to much attention being paid to their modeling. The energy market modeling under …

Valuation of option price in commodity markets described by a Markov-switching model: A case study of WTI crude oil market

F Mehrdoust, I Noorani, J Kanniainen - Mathematics and Computers in …, 2024 - Elsevier
This paper suggests a Markov-switching model to evaluate commodity futures and spot
dynamics, such that the diffusion coefficients and jump size parameter are associated with a …

Valuation of spark-spread option written on electricity and gas forward contracts under two-factor models with non-Gaussian Lévy processes

F Mehrdoust, I Noorani - Computational Economics, 2023 - Springer
In energy markets, especially electricity and gas, one experience rather large and dramatic
spikes in spot prices, but they are quickly reverting back. Hence it is appropriate to take into …

Occam's razor, machine learning and stochastic modeling of complex systems: the case of the Italian energy market

C Mari, E Mari - Quality & Quantity, 2024 - Springer
In the spirit of Occam's razor, we propose a parsimoniuos regime-switching model for
describing the complex dynamics of electricity and natural gas prices observed in real …

An efficient algorithm for pricing reinsurance contract under the regime-switching model

M Abbaspour, KF Vajargah, P Azhdari - Mathematics and Computers in …, 2023 - Elsevier
This paper suggests a new and efficient variance reduction technique based on the Monte-
Carlo simulation method for pricing the reinsurance contract in a regime-switching …

Forward contract prices of electricity Nord Pool market: calibration and jump approximation

A Najafi, R Taleghani, F Mehrdoust - Sādhanā, 2023 - Springer
This paper focuses on the forward contract price under a mean-reverting jump-diffusion
electricity model and the Grandell idea. Based on historical spot prices from the electricity …