We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and
financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who …

We study a newly designed survey administered to a large panel of wealthy retail investors.
The survey elicits beliefs that are important for macroeconomics and finance, and matches …

The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze households'
spending responses using data from a Fintech nonprofit, exploring heterogeneity by income …

Consumers rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming
expectations about aggregate inflation. We use micro data that uniquely match individual …

It surprised investors, who dumped stocks and brought the market index down by 500 points
on Monday. It surprised policymakers, who rushed to rescue other financial institutions after …

Behavioral finance tries to make sense of financial data using models that are based on
psychologically accurate assumptions about people's beliefs, preferences, and cognitive …

We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between
cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of inflation expectations, and the consumption plans of …

We document two stylized facts in expectational survey data. First, professional forecasters
overrevise their macroeconomic expectations. Second, such overrevisions mask evidence of …

We propose a model of optimal decision-making subject to a memory constraint. The
constraint is a limit on the complexity of memory measured using Shannon's mutual …

I test a set of predictions that constitute an identity theory of choice under risk using large-
scale artefactual field experiments. Men whose identity is primed or threatened invest more …